Saudi Arabia at a Crossroads in Confronting the Houthis: Is It Heading for a Direct Confrontation?

Analysts and journalists have offered varying assessments regarding the nature of the Saudi response to the Houthi escalation, the role of the United States and regional mediators in containing tensions, and warnings that the confrontation could move to Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea.

Journalist and writer Anwar al-Ansi said that Saudi Arabia faces "one of the most dangerous challenges in its history," considering that Riyadh feels it has been "left alone" to face Houthi attacks.

Al-Ansi added, in a statement to the "Mawaqif" program on Al Mahriah Channel, that the United States appears, in his estimation, to be "letting Saudi Arabia down," despite the close relations between the two countries. He noted that Pakistan and Turkey do not seem ready to enter into a confrontation with the Houthi group alongside Riyadh.

He pointed out that the 14-nation naval coalition formed by Saudi Arabia seems hesitant, believing that some of Riyadh's allies "want to blackmail it," foremost among them the United States, which he said is seeking to push Saudi Arabia towards normalization with Israel, a choice Riyadh continues to resist, according to him.

Al-Ansi wondered whether Saudi Arabia was late in taking decisive steps against the expansion of Iranian influence in the region, through the Houthis in Yemen and armed factions in Iraq, which he said has made confronting these fronts simultaneously more difficult.

He suggested that "the next two weeks" will likely see changes in the Saudi position regarding Houthi attacks against it, as well as attacks by armed factions.

 Washington Leans Towards a Diplomatic Option in Bab al-Mandab

For his part, Jordanian political analyst Hazem Ayyad said that the United States is leaning towards a diplomatic option regarding the Bab al-Mandab issue, in an attempt to avoid direct military involvement in the confrontation in the region.

Ayyad explained, in a statement to the "Al-Tasi'a" program on Al Mahriah Channel, that Washington "has no military options" in Bab al-Mandab, which is why it has resorted to Omani mediation. He considers the American move an attempt to avoid opening a new front that would drain it militarily and economically.

He added that the United States "does not want to engage in a war" or support a direct military option in Bab al-Mandab, noting that its priorities are currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz, and it does not wish to turn Bab al-Mandab into a new arena of attrition.

Ayyad believes that Washington is betting on containing the escalation, especially given the high cost of any potential military intervention and its potential repercussions on navigation and energy markets.

He said that the American move through the Sultanate of Oman represents, in his view, an "exit" to avoid its obligations towards Saudi Arabia, amid the escalation and attacks that have targeted Saudi areas and facilities, according to him.

He pointed to the possibility of other countries, including China, Egypt, and Turkey, playing larger roles in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab file. He explained that Cairo has tools to influence the issue due to its direct interests in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, while Ankara has growing interests in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

 Direct Confrontation with the Houthis

In this context, Dr. Bakeil Al-Zandani, a professor of security studies at Qatar University, said that Saudi actions regarding the Houthi escalation in Yemen cannot be reduced to a unilateral Saudi decision. He pointed out that the decision is fundamentally a "Yemeni national" one, and that the Yemeni government was the one that requested Saudi Arabia's presence and role in previous stages.

Al-Zandani added, in a statement to the "Al-Tasi'a" program on Al Mahriah Channel, that Saudi Arabia began to act more assertively regionally and internationally after being subjected to Houthi attacks that affected its security, sovereignty, and internal stability.

He explained that Riyadh has held contacts with European countries and the United States, as well as Egypt as a key partner in the security of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, with the aim of formulating a unified regional and international position on the Houthi escalation.

He noted that the Saudi moves are intended, in his estimation, to prevent the Houthis from advancing in strategic locations that could affect the military balance and the movement of navigation and trade in the Red Sea.

Regarding assurances from Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam about keeping the Bab al-Mandab Strait open and not targeting ships, Al-Zandani said that countries cannot treat these statements as guarantees, as they are not dealing with an official state, but with a group he said is linked to a regional agenda.

He added that the lack of international and regional recognition of the Houthis makes it difficult to guarantee their commitment to any future pledges, noting that the group, according to him, initiated contact with the United States through Omani mediation to send assurances regarding navigation.

Regarding the possibility that Saudi Arabia might find itself alone if it takes military action, Al-Zandani dismissed this, saying that there is "regional and international consensus" and condemnations of the escalation from the Gulf, Arab, Islamic, European, and American spheres.

He stressed that the military option does not necessarily mean going directly into a full-scale war or deploying ground troops, considering that this would be costly. What is currently required, he argued, is to support the political position of Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government.

He pointed out that Saudi Arabia prefers a "collective deterrence" to protect Bab al-Mandab, as it is an international strait whose security affects global navigation and trade.

Al-Zandani said that Saudi Arabia is "not alone" in this matter, but he also noted the lack of clarity regarding existing agreements or arrangements between Riyadh and its allies if it decides to move towards a direct military confrontation.

He concluded by saying that Saudi Arabia may move towards direct military action, with the support of the Yemeni government, to confront the Houthi group, which he said receives support from Iran.