Yemen's Dawn: What a Month of Battles Changed in the Power Balance

A full month has passed since the launch of Operation "Yemen's Dawn," announced by the Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, with the goal of completing the liberation of the remaining areas under Houthi control, including the capital, Sanaa.

On October 5, 2026, the operation was launched following a military escalation between government forces and the Houthis that began last July, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries.

With a month having passed since the operation's launch, questions arise about its nature and military objectives, and whether it has achieved battlefield gains that have changed the balance of the confrontation, or if it has turned into a war of attrition amidst the complexities of the Yemeni scene and multiple fronts.

The launch of Operation "Yemen's Dawn" followed the Houthis' capture of strategic areas on the West Coast, including Bab al-Mandab and the city of Mokha, in addition to other districts in Taiz governorate, and the Hays and Al-Khawkha districts in Hodeidah governorate.

This battlefield setback for government forces raised questions about its causes, especially since most of these areas were under the control of the National Resistance Forces, led by Presidential Leadership Council member Tareq Saleh, who is backed by the UAE.

Battles of Bab al-Mandab

Shortly after the operation began, government forces announced their control over Bab al-Mandab and the Dhubab district.

Later, they also announced recapturing the strategic mountainous area of Kahboub, which overlooks the strait and is located between the governorates of Taiz and Lahij.

In contrast, the Houthis denied these military gains, asserting their continued control over Bab al-Mandab and its surroundings, amid conflicting narratives from both sides regarding field developments in the area.

For his part, a military source told "Almahriah Net" that the situation in the Bab al-Mandab area remains complex.

He added that the Bab al-Mandab front is still a conflict zone between government forces and the Houthis, with neither side able to secure decisive control amid ongoing clashes and exchanges of fire.

Government Advance in Al-Jawf

A month after the launch of Operation "Yemen's Dawn," government forces managed to recapture strategic positions in Al-Jawf governorate, in the northeast of the country, near the Saudi border.

Recently, government forces announced control over the Huwayshiyan and Al-Duhaydha mountains east of the governorate, which are militarily significant due to their elevation and oversight of vital areas and roads, as well as paving the way for government forces to advance towards the city of Al-Hazm, the provincial capital, which remains under Houthi control.

Houthi Gains

In contrast, the Houthis made battlefield advances in several areas in the governorates of Taiz and Lahij. They managed to take control of the districts of Al-Silw, Sami', Ash-Shamayatayn, Al-Ma'afer, Al-Mawasit, and others in Taiz governorate, reaching areas in the Al-Maqatirah district, which is administratively part of Lahij governorate and adjacent to Taiz governorate.

The Houthis now control most of Taiz governorate and are besieging its center, the city of Taiz, amidst significant human rights and humanitarian criticism of this siege.

This reflects the ongoing mutual battlefield advances and retreats between the two sides and the widening scope of confrontations on more than one front.

20,000 Houthis Neutralized in a Month

In the context of human and material losses, the Presidential Leadership Council announced yesterday, Thursday, the neutralization of about 20,000 Houthi leaders and elements, and the destruction or disablement of more than 5,000 military vehicles during the first month of Operation "Yemen's Dawn."

The Council stated in a statement on the occasion of the first month of the operation that the armed forces had carried out 40,761 targeting operations against Houthi positions and capabilities on various fronts since last October 5.

It considered this toll to reflect the extent of losses suffered by the Houthis and the level of attrition their human and military capabilities have been subjected to, stressing that what was achieved in the first month is not the end of the battle and that the confrontation will continue with greater intensity in the next phase until the operation's objectives are met.

The Council affirmed that the operation represents an irreversible national decision and is moving towards ending Houthi control, restoring state institutions, and extending sovereignty over all Yemeni territories, including the capital, Sanaa.

An Operation Turned into a War of Attrition

In his assessment of the results of Operation Yemen's Dawn, Yemeni politician and academic Dr. Adel Al-Shuja'a said that the passage of a month of military operations in Yemen confirms that the ongoing confrontations have turned into a war of attrition, not a unified battle to restore the legitimate government's decision-making and achieve battlefield gains that would pave the way for a future negotiation phase.

Al-Shuja'a added, in statements to Almahriah, that the Houthi group is the one dictating the nature of the battle and determining its time and place.

He considered that the group is making progress in several ongoing confrontations in Taiz governorate, southwestern Yemen, while government forces withdraw from time to time.

He explained that the resistance is the side fighting fiercely and has so far managed to impede the Houthis' advance and prevent them from capturing the remaining positions in the city of Taiz, which is now besieged from all directions and suffering from conditions he described as worse than what Gaza previously endured.

Al-Shuja'a pointed out that the field developments reveal the legitimate government's inability to unify its military decision-making, amidst the clear absence of the Minister of Defense from the scene and his lack of appearance recently.

Regarding the recent changes in military leadership in several governorates, Al-Shuja'a said that these decisions reflect problems in managing battles, noting that some of the replaced leaders withdrew from strategic positions without fighting, despite having the necessary capabilities to hold their ground and even make battlefield advances.

He added that these withdrawals showed the inability of some leaders to manage battles and their unsuitability to command military brigades in confrontational positions.

He believed that the new leadership changes could bring about a shift on the battlefield, especially since the Houthis have not been able to achieve the objectives they expected to accomplish within a week or ten days.

 He pointed out that the Houthis have suffered significant human losses and have become less capable of mobilizing and reinforcing the Taiz fronts.

Al-Shuja'a considered that exploiting the state of attrition faced by the Houthis in Taiz, due to the resistance of the governorate's people, could allow government forces to make progress on several fronts and positions, provided that the new leadership moves according to a unified strategic military vision.