Will Houthi Mobilization and Airstrikes Lead to an All-Out War in Yemen?

Murad Al-Arifi, an analyst and researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, said that Yemen appears to be heading towards a new round of military escalation that could lead to an all-out battle, with increasing airstrikes and military movements on the ground.

In a statement to the "Al-Tasi'a" program on Al-Mahriah TV, Al-Arifi added that current indicators suggest the possibility of Saudi Arabia's greater re-involvement in the Yemeni war, noting that Riyadh has not yet announced an official position on returning to an all-out battle.

He explained that what he described as "unusual mobilizations" of Houthi group fighters on the Saudi border, along with talk of movements targeting the city of Marib, puts Riyadh at a crossroads that may push it to re-engage in the war.

Al-Arifi noted that the Houthi group, in his estimation, has crossed the "red lines" set for it, both within Yemen and regarding the airstrikes, considering that the current political and military indicators are pushing towards a more violent round.

Regarding the international stance, Al-Arifi said there is hesitation, especially from the United States, noting that President Donald Trump's administration refused to respond to the Yemeni government's request to launch airstrikes. However, he believed Washington would remain keen on an active Saudi presence in the Yemeni file.

He added that the United States has, in the past period, consistently treated the Yemeni file as a "Saudi file" and had been demanding that Riyadh take on a larger role in handling it.

Al-Arifi pointed out that Saudi Arabia had tried in the past to distance itself from re-engaging in the Yemeni war, but the current circumstances, in his estimation, might push it towards escalation, considering the return of an all-out war "a matter of time."

Regarding the Houthi group's response to Saudi Arabia and the recent escalation, Al-Arifi said the group might take two paths. The first is to escalate attacks towards Saudi Arabia, as it continues to frame its battle as a confrontation with Riyadh.

He added that the movement on various fronts and the increase in airstrikes—in terms of their number, timing, and the targets hit—indicate a widening of the confrontation's scope.

He noted that the strikes that hit areas in Sana'a and other locations, along with military operations targeting military leaders, reflect, in his opinion, a decline in the chances for a negotiated path between the Houthi group and Saudi Arabia, and that the situation is heading towards further escalation.