The Futile War and the Nuclear Deal

The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal with the United States and major world powers was signed to save the region from an unnecessary and catastrophic war. Omani diplomacy made strenuous efforts over many years, especially during 2013 and 2014, leading up to the penultimate round in Muscat, which culminated in the signing of the nuclear agreement in Vienna in 2015.

The most important question is: What if this Iranian nuclear deal had been maintained, which restricts Iran's enrichment to a low level of less than 4 percent, in addition to periodic inspections of Iranian nuclear reactors by the International Atomic Energy Agency? There would have been no dilemma regarding maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, some economic sanctions on Iran would have been lifted, and several billion dollars—essentially Iranian funds—would have been released. Through the 2015 nuclear deal, Omani diplomacy, with its high credibility, integrity, and neutrality, spared the region and the world the disasters of war, which are not only military but also economic and social.

The world awoke in 2018 to the withdrawal of the United States under the Trump administration from the Iranian nuclear deal, deeming it a negative agreement that did not serve American interests and was not fair. In light of this withdrawal, the Islamic Republic of Iran was freed from the strict restrictions on enrichment levels. The Strait of Hormuz was open to maritime navigation, and trade, along with thousands of ships and tankers, passed with ease through the strait, whose sovereignty is shared by our country, the Sultanate of Oman, and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

With the US abandoning the deal, despite its ratification by the UN Security Council, the Iranian-American confrontation took a hardline turn, incited by the head of the extremist government in the Zionist entity. The region entered a climate of instability and tension. Omani diplomacy continued its role in de-escalating tensions through its excellent relations with all countries, aiming for a return to the agreement or an Iranian-American dialogue to amend some of its clauses to prevent military confrontation. The Biden administration came in 2020, a year when the world witnessed the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which dominated the global health scene, with millions losing their lives to the dangerous virus. Two years later, with the emergence of vaccines, the virus's impact receded, and the world breathed a sigh of relief.

On October 7, 2023, the world once again entered a major confrontation between the Palestinian resistance, represented by Hamas and other factions, in a military clash that paralyzed the Israeli entity. The world witnessed Israel committing genocide and serious violations against the Palestinian people, during which more than 75,000 people were martyred, most of them children and women, and the infrastructure of the Gaza Strip was destroyed. The world then saw the "unity of fronts," as Lebanese Hezbollah, Ansar Allah in Yemen, Iraqi Hezbollah, and several armed groups joined in support of Hamas. Here, the region entered a dangerous turn in the implementation of the global Zionist project, which received a painful blow through the failure of the military machine and American support to break the resistance for two years, until a ceasefire was reached through still-ineffective mechanisms.

With the Trump administration striking a number of Iranian nuclear reactors, the region entered a dangerous climate. Amid incitement from Netanyahu and his extremist government, matters became extremely complex. Once again, Omani diplomacy is making great efforts through negotiations in Muscat, Rome, and Geneva. Things were on the verge of success when, in a decisive and unforeseen moment, the United States and the Zionist entity launched a major military attack primarily aimed at eliminating military and civilian leaders and the Supreme Leader in Iran, changing the Iranian regime, and installing a regime loyal to the United States and the Zionist entity.

If this plan were to succeed, the "New Middle East" plan would be ready for implementation through normalization with Arab and Islamic countries and the Zionist entity's control over the region through geographical expansion, as shown in the map of "Greater Israel" displayed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The region has entered a dangerous arena with the widening of the war and mutual attacks between the United States and the Zionist entity on one side, and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the other, with Hezbollah joining the war.

In my opinion, the administration of US President Trump lost the war on a strategic level, an analysis shared by a number of thinkers and military figures in the United States. The reason is the failure to achieve its primary objectives, foremost among them changing the Iranian regime, in addition to the failure to open the Strait of Hormuz, in which Iran found a major strategic card that changed the balance of the military confrontation. The world has entered a crossroads.

Signing the memorandum of understanding is a positive step to end the conflict and reach, after 60 days, a nuclear agreement that may not differ much in terms of the foundations and mechanisms regarding enrichment, nuclear monitoring, lifting economic sanctions, and releasing Iranian assets, which are estimated at tens of billions of dollars. In light of this, was it necessary to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal? Was the outbreak of a catastrophic war a necessity for the United States, the region, and the world, as the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue despite the drop in energy prices? And what is the cost that the region's countries will bear from the missile and drone attacks that came from known and some unknown locations, with Israel playing the biggest role in igniting that war?

Ironically, the Zionist entity tried to stir up sedition and drag the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries into a military confrontation with Iran to inflame the region. However, the leaders of the region's countries were wise, and Gulf-Iranian communications spared the region many of the horrors of war.

In my view, the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal was a good agreement, and some limited amendments could have been made. It met the needs of regional security and stability. Hence, the lessons I pointed to in a previous article are necessities after the war ends. It also became clear that the Zionist entity is the root of the problem, dragging the United States into a war that was not its own and causing problems within the US in terms of public opinion, Congress, and the American media.

The American administration has tried by all means to find a political consensus with Iran, due to internal variables. There are doubts about the Republican Party's chances in the upcoming midterm congressional elections in November. Therefore, it is in the party's interest to end the war, which has had economic repercussions on the American people, especially gasoline prices and inflation. Millions in the United States feel that their country has been dragged into an unrealistic war that does not serve American interests, but rather had consequences somewhat similar to the United Kingdom's position during the 1956 Suez Crisis, which was the primary factor in the end of the British Empire.

Therefore, the American-Israeli war on Iran and its repercussions will cause Iran to emerge from that war as a great power, having won the spirit and resilience of the Iranian people against the world's largest military force. Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz card has become of a major strategic importance that was not previously imagined.

In light of this, the diplomatic efforts by the Sultanate of Oman, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the State of Qatar, and others will result in a political approach leading to an Iranian nuclear deal that may not differ much from the 2015 agreement. The question is repeated again: Was it necessary to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal? And what did the world gain from a catastrophic war that had economic and commercial repercussions for the countries of the region and the world, and fostered a climate of instability and mistrust?

In light of this, we should return to the principles of diplomacy and dialogue as soft tools that help find solutions away from the language of force and Zionist incitement. As US Vice President Pence said, Israel has no friend left in the world but the United States, in a clear reference to the world's hatred for this odious entity that has ignited wars in the Middle East, stirred up sedition, killed innocents, and worked to create a climate of instability, wars, and conflicts. The world has a responsibility to stop this entity and find a comprehensive, just, and fair solution to the Palestinian cause by establishing a Palestinian state on the June 4, 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.